The Turin ATP Finals group stage is coming to a close, but Friday’s matches surely won’t disappoint!
I’ve found value on both of Friday’s matchups — Alcaraz vs. Medvedev and Zverev vs. Rublev.
Read on for my ATP Finals predictions for Friday, November 17.
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Friday ATP Finals Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz (-154) vs Daniil Medvedev (+126)
8:30 a.m. ET
Carlos Alcaraz comfortably defeated Andrey Rublev 7-5, 6-2 in his previous Turin matchup. Alcaraz won an impressive 85% of his service points and didn’t face a break point. The Spaniard also won 41% of his return points, breaking on three occasions.
Alcaraz is 27-8 this season on hard courts and boasts a strong 87-29 career record on the surface. The win over Rublev snapped a three-match losing streak. Alcaraz’s forehand dominates from the baseline and he can also play offense with his backhand. The Spaniard moves incredibly well, counterpunches effectively and has excellent variety. He has the second-highest return and under-pressure rating over the past 52 weeks.
However, Alcaraz has been impatient in recent matches and lacking in rally tolerance.
Daniil Medvedev continued his winning ways, beating Alexander Zverev 7-6(7), 6-4 to make the semifinals in Turin. Medvedev served 73% of his first serves into play, won 78% of those points and was only broken once. In addition, the Russian won 34% of his return points, breaking twice.
Medvedev has an amazing 49-10 record on hard courts in 2023 and is 342-125 on hard courts in his career. The Russian has a huge first serve and hits with incredibly consistent depth and precision from the baseline. He moves well, showcases strong anticipation skills and does an excellent job neutralizing the attacking shots of his opponent. This includes big serves, as Medvedev has the highest return rating over the past 52 weeks.
With that said, Medvedev’s court positioning, especially in the quick Turin conditions, is too deep.
Alcaraz should move forward often, given Medvedev’s court positioning. With that said, the Russian’s court coverage, consistent depth and defensive skills should frustrate Alcaraz, especially right now.
Alcaraz has been too loose, too early in rallies. And Medvedev is not the opponent anyone wants to play when prone to early ball errors.
Medvedev, at the US Open, proved he could grind Alcaraz down from the ground. He was incredibly solid, kept points alive and baited the Spaniard into overhitting. Given Medvedev’s similarly impressive form this week, a similar performance is very possible.
And, while Medvedev has already made the semifinals, given the money at stake, I’m not concerned about motivation.
Pick: Medvedev +2.5 games (-130 via FanDuel)
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Alexander Zverev (-155) vs Andrey Rublev (+120)
3:00 p.m. ET
Alexander Zverev was edged out by Daniil Medvedev 6-7(7), 4-6 in his prior Turin match. Zverev won 66% of his service points and was broken twice. In addition, the German won just 29% of his return points, breaking just once.
Zverev is 29-16 on hard courts this year and 268-142 on the surface overall as a professional. The German has a big first serve and uses his backhand to dictate baseline play. Zverev moves and anticipates well and defends effectively. He showcases excellent consistent depth is very patient on court. But, his forehand gets erratic during inopportune times and he’s sometimes too defensive-minded during rallies.
Andrey Rublev fell 5-7, 2-6 to Carlos Alcaraz in his second round-robin match in Turin. Rublev won just 59% of his service points, getting broken on three occasions. And, the Russian won only 15% of his return points, failing to generate a break point.
Rublev has a dazzling 29-17 hard-court record in 2023 and is 280-149 on hard courts over the course of his career. The Russian has a big forehand, which he uses to dictate from the ground. In addition, Rublev’s backhand has improved and his court positioning is strong.
However, Rublev’s backhand can still leak errors and shorter balls. The Russian also lacks variety, is timid moving forward and has struggled to put forehands away this week. In addition, Rublev, who has lost three straight matches, seems to have mentally checked out of the season.
Zverev has won a much higher percentage of his service points this week and has shown much better control from the baseline.
Rublev’s serve has been ineffective this week and he’s struggling to put away the elite defenders that he’s faced. Zverev should be able to effectively neutralize Rublev’s groundstrokes and wait for his opportunity to crack a backhand, or for Rublev to crack from the ground.
Zverev’s forehand is solid enough to hang with Rublev, and he has a massive advantage in backhand-to-backhand exchanges.
Pick: Zverev -1.5 games (-125 via BetMGM)
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