The “contrarian method” (Betting Against the Public) is one of the most popular sports betting systems. Public Perception of going against whatever side the public is backing. This betting system is that the public can be easily brainwashed by the media and tends to be wrong more often than not, so the more excited and loaded up they are on one side of a match, the more likely it is that the ‘smart’ bettor is taking the opposite side and fading them instead.
Public Perception vs. Bookie Reality
The reason this system makes sense and works consistently over time revolves around the fact that if the public was mostly on the winning side, bookies would have trouble staying in business. Bookies set their odds trying to get equal public action on both sides and know what they are doing, sometimes even making one side look too good to be true and catch you.
When the betting public pounds a popular side in that situation, it is often the bookie that comes out winning. As a punter, why not be on the ‘right’ side that the sportsbook is rooting for from the start?
An example showing how the “contrarian method” works involve following the public’s obsession betting on favuorites and OVER/UNDER’s GOALS, especially in Parlays. Most sports punters get into betting in the 1st place because they are fans at heart who already have a rooting interest in the match and want to make money from their sports passion. Do you think that fans don’t like betting on great teams and a lot of scoring?
With this knowledge on their side, bookies can shade their odds against favuorites with point spread betting and OVER/UNDER’s with totals betting, knowing that many punters will often play them without question. Popular public picks will also move the odds by a half-point or more, offering, even more, value to those going against the bookies in these situations.
Fading the Public is Profitable in a Way..
In the NFL over the past 8 seasons, matches in which 75% of the public is on one side lost roughly 53-54% of the time, meaning that fading them has resulted in more wins than losses. Large underdogs were among the best bets during this stretch with the underdog covering the spread 55% of the time when 70-75% of the public was on a favorite of 7+ points, which is one of the key numbers in American football betting.
In college football, the teams that play away from home receiving a high percentage of the public’s betting action also make excellent fades. If you place a bet against away from home teams that received 77-80% of bets over that same time period, you would have won about 56% of the time. 🙂
But a betting trend or system does not last forever due to the likelihood that the market will eventually adjust, fading the public seems to be one that will continue to be successful to some degree and stand the test of time. Bookies will always know what side the public is on, and ‘sharp bettors’ will be able to pick up on this most of the time by charting odds moves and placing their bets accordingly based on bet percentages and where they can find value.
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News Release: Betting Against the Public
Submitted on: October 27, 2017
Submitted by: Thomas Hoon
On behalf of: thebet.info/